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A. Relevance and sustainability context

A.1 Policy relevance

The indicator provides information to which extent bio-based industries develop together with a market outlook. This is of considerable interest to assess the development but also future growth fields of the bioeconomy.

A.2 Sustainability and / or comparative evaluation options

Benchmark is the current market size. it would be of interest to put this in perspective to the respective whole market (e.g. fossil-based plastics etc.), but often no direct comparable data exists.

B. Data availability

B.1 Stage of development

It is a new indicator as the compilation of market data is possible and has been performed for some application fields. However, robustness is limited due to the reliance on market estimates and coverage is limited to select innovative segments.

B.2 Data sources

Market data suppliers.

B.3 Coverage over time and replicability

Only current data, as back tracing looking for older market studies from now would be quite laborious and data breaks are likely.

B.4 Coverage across scales and sectors; compatibility

Data is freely available only for the global level (only if many studies are purchased, more detailed info would be available).

C. Considerations for operationalization

C.1 Feasibility: Fit for monitoring

Robustness is currently limited as we rely on intransparent market assumptions; issues of double counting may arise, if many markets are summed up.

C.2 Institutions

Fraunhofer ISI

C.3 Future prospects

It would be feasible to update with moderate update efforts, but data breaks possible.

C.4 Costs, considerations and reproducibility

High costs would arise, if more detailed market data is acquired.

C.5 Potential for automation

No, but limited effort.

C.6 Presentation options and breakdown / sub-indicator needs

As only aggregated market numbers are publicly available, no further breakdown possible.

C.7 Potential for scenario integration

Yes, the market development paths could be an important factor in scenarios.

C.8 Interlinkages and alignment with other monitoring activities

Market data is used in other monitoring systems (e.g. batteries), but not for bioeconomy yet.

Legend

Tier

Tier I describes the 30 core, priority indicators defined by the project that are highly relevant to represent a specific thematic area and which together with other Tier I indicators forms a systemic perspective of the various risks, opportunities and trade-offs within the Bioeconomy.

Tier II describes explanatory indicators that are of high priority and help to provide more specific information on trends within specific thematic areas.

Stage of development

Established:
Indicators which are already reported in other official monitoring systems

Semi-established:
Indicators which are developed by e.g. federal research institutes as part of long-term and regularly updated initiatives

New
Indicators not previously reported in an official capacity, but well established through research projects

Developing
Indicators under development with some reporting in new state-of-the research projects, but not subject to multiple years of revision and replication

Future
Indicator gaps requiring research for possible future integration

Robustness

Very robust:
methodologically sound, reliable, and fit for bioeconomy monitoring

Robust:
fit, but with acceptable uncertainty and/or potential challenges

Sufficient:
possibly fit, but with foreseeable challenges

Weak:
currently unfit, but short-term potential

Insufficient:
currently unfit, but with long-term potential