A. Relevance and sustainability context
A.1 Policy relevance
The indicator Vocational Training Supply Gap Index (VTSGI 1 and 2) aims at monitoring the development of skilled work force in relation to the ongoing transformation of the economy towards future-proof sustainable circular bioeconomy. The indicator informs specifically about the reach and effects of the bioeconomy strategy pertaining to the orientation of the future work force of skilled labour and on the expected development of the employment market, respectively.
German policy relevance
Recognizing the unsustainable path of exploiting non-renewable resources, national policy aims at optimizing use of renewable resources including limited national primary and secondary bio-resources. One of the main targets going along with the National Bioeconomy Strategy is to secure the competitiveness of the national economy by establishing Germany as a leader and global driver of innovation in biobased technologies. This strategic aim is not unprecedented but follows the (economic pain and) curative path that induced the cascade of technology development, which was urgently required to purge water and exhausts in order to recover breathable air and drinking water supply. Much of this ‘technology developed in need’ is adding to today’s national export surplus.
However, while innovation is the fuse, it requires skilled labour to implement the technologies efficiently and produce the final pervasion and full benefit for the national economy. Hence, monitoring the development of bioeconomy-related education of specifically the skilled work force aims at sensing the pulse of slow but long-term success of a sustainably maintained policy towards sustainability.
European Union policy relevance
With respect to the alignment of national and EU strategy and their main targets, monitoring vocational training in relation to progressing bioeconomy development may spearhead similarly expanded monitoring in bioeconomy advanced countries like Italy, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.
A.2 Sustainability and / or comparative evaluation options
The VTSGI is a relative indicator relating development of the education of skilled work force to the year 2020 in which the current Bioeconomy (BE) Strategy came into effect. Accordingly, VTSGI calculates as follows:
(beVTC-1 yr2020+i / total VTC yr2020+i) / (total VTC yr2020+i/ total VTC yr2020) with
beVTC-12020+1: the number of registered education/apprenticeship contracts counting only the BE-associable jobs among the officially endorsed job titles in a year 2020+i
total VTC2020+1: the number of total VTC contracts under officially endorsed job titles of the year 2020+i
total VTC2020: the number of total VTC contracts under officially endorsed job titles of reference year 2020.
beVTC-1 counts educational contracts for job titles that are clearly associable with the bioeconomy, such as the traditional jobs of baker, violin manufacturer, barber and farmer/agronomist. However, on one hand, traditional jobs are overall rather in decline. This can be understood from job titles such as fur coat manufacturer, pelt monger, lorimer and the like. Endorsement of new bioeconomy-associable skill sets will likely take time, e.g. 12 new job titles denominating specifically “environmental technology” did not appear in the tables earlier than 2024. On the other hand, new evolving technologies often hire work force from suitably skilled employments. Prominent examples are industrial mechanics, mechatronic engineers, and clerks serving the logistics of transport and sale. These skillsets are generally required to maintain raw material processing, transport and distribution of biobased products. Accordingly, a beVTC-2 was calculated to include such universally required skills in addition to the ones strictly Bioeconomy-associable. The function of a complementary beVTC-2 as such can hardly be challenged, whereas the selected set of these universally required skills ought to be peer-reviewed prior to the index’ employment for monitoring.
B. Data availability
B.1 Stage of development
VTSGI represents a newly developed indicator, which requires proving its significance over a period of time. VTSGI is custom-cut pertaining to employing easily accessible, nationally available, and reliable statistics.
The ‘Vocational Training Supply Gap Index’ was considered to be complemented by an indicator denominated as ‘Innovator Potential Index’, but which requires a much more complex data sourcing. Considering the cost of monitoring, the development of this indicator has been postponed so far.
B.2 Data sources
Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung, Erhebung zum 30. September / Federal Institute for Vocational Training: Newly signed contracts of educational training registered until September of each year, Table 46; https://www.bibb.de/de/213629.php.
B.3 Coverage over time and replicability
The required data is provided by BIBB annually since 2003, which basically renders it possible to relocate the reference year further into the past.
B.4 Coverage across scales and sectors; compatibility
Table 46 provides national data and includes gender distinction, which may offer opportunities for policy justification. Table 75 breaks data down to state scale, which can provide additional information (on demand) on deviations in regional progress. Distinction of VTSGI by sectors, e.g., biobased products and bioenergy, does not promise a sufficient indicator strength due to much overlap in required skills.
C. Considerations for operationalization
C.1 Feasibility: Fit for monitoring
The indicator is fit for monitoring (methodologically sound, reliable, and fit for bioeconomy monitoring).
C.2 Institutions
DBFZ / BIBB
C.3 Future prospects
VTSGI indicator can be integrated in bioeconomy monitoring, i.e. monitoring can commence. Any tangible imprint of bioeconomy transformation on vocational trainings, respectively the altering choices made therein, will reflect the bioeconomy pervasiveness in societal reality.
C.4 Costs, considerations and reproducibility
Moderate costs are considered for a yearly provision of VTSGI. Alterations in data tables, job descriptions or new skills added, together with the research justifying re-selection of bioeconomy-associable skills is expected to take the lion’s share of work time. Peer-reviewing of the selection and possible recalculation of years is unlikely to occur frequently but ought to be generally included to comply to scientific standards.
C.5 Potential for automation
Automation of data retrieval via API (application programming interface) and processing is possible, although time and effort required for automation may not necessarily achieve a better cost/benefit ratio. The scope of computing algorithm required to manoeuvre through changes in the consecutive tables has not been assessed yet.
C.6 Presentation options and breakdown / sub-indicator needs
The indicator can show the relative trend in availability of skilled work force for bioeconomy development.
C.7 Potential for scenario integration
Integration in bioeconomy scenarios appears far-fetched at present but may prove having explanatory power in conjunction with the development of employment modulated by bioeconomy growth and expansion.
C.8 Interlinkages and alignment with other monitoring activities
With respect to historical examples, VTSGI is expected to show significant delay corresponding to bioeconomy-related employment demands. Such an observation would suggest inter-ministerial efforts (e.g. BMBFSJ, BMAS, BMWE) towards joint stimulation of vocational training titles and offers.